Rivian Automotive (RIVN) faces mixed analyst ratings after a weak 2025 delivery forecast. Discover the latest updates on RIVN stock, production costs, and future prospects.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN), a prominent player in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, has received mixed ratings from Wall Street analysts following its disappointing 2025 delivery forecast. The company expects to deliver between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles in 2025, a 12% decline from its 2024 target of 52,000. This news sent RIVN shares down by over 4% in pre-market trading on February 21. Despite the setback, some analysts remain optimistic about Rivian’s long-term potential, citing improvements in production costs and upcoming innovations.
Rivian’s 2025 Delivery Forecast: A Cause for Concern
Rivian’s 2025 delivery guidance of 46,000 to 51,000 vehicles fell short of investor expectations, leading to a decline in RIVN stock. The company attributed the lower forecast to industry challenges, including policy headwinds, reduced incentives, and economic uncertainties. This cautious outlook has raised questions about Rivian’s ability to maintain its growth trajectory in a competitive EV market.
Analysts Remain Optimistic About Long-Term Prospects
Despite the weak delivery forecast, some analysts see positive signs for Rivian’s long-term profitability.
Goldman Sachs’ Perspective:
Goldman Sachs’ five-star-rated analyst Mark Delaney maintained a Hold rating on RIVN stock but raised the price target from $13 to $14. Delaney highlighted significant improvements in production costs, with the cost of goods sold (COGS) per vehicle decreasing by $31,000 year-over-year in Q4 2024, bringing it down to approximately $100,000 per vehicle. Delaney also noted Rivian’s plans to introduce hands-free driving features and limited highway self-driving capabilities by 2026. While these innovations are promising, Delaney cautioned that near-term challenges, such as policy hurdles and reduced incentives, could impact Rivian’s performance in 2025.
Needham’s Optimism:
Needham reaffirmed its Buy rating on RIVN stock, predicting a 25% upside. The firm remains optimistic about Rivian’s upcoming R2 model, a mass-market SUV designed to be more affordable and expand Rivian’s addressable market. CEO RJ Scaringe confirmed during the earnings call that the R2 is on track for a launch in the first half of 2026.
Cantor Downgrades RIVN Stock
On the other hand, Cantor Fitzgerald’s four-star-rated analyst Andres Sheppard downgraded RIVN from Buy to Hold, citing the weaker-than-expected delivery guidance. Rivian’s 2025 forecast of 46,000–51,000 vehicles is below Cantor’s estimate of 59,402. Sheppard also pointed to other challenges, including lower van shipments, economic headwinds, new tariffs, and the potential loss of the $7,500 EV tax credit.
Is Rivian Stock a Buy?
According to TipRanks, RIVN stock has a Hold consensus rating, based on two Buy, seven Hold, and two Sell ratings over the past three months. With an average price target of $14.01, Rivian’s stock suggests a modest 3% upside potential.
Key Takeaways
Weak Delivery Forecast: Rivian’s 2025 delivery guidance of 46,000–51,000 vehicles disappointed investors, leading to a decline in RIVN stock.
Cost Improvements: Production costs have decreased significantly, with COGS per vehicle dropping to $100,000 in Q4 2024.
Innovations Ahead: Rivian plans to introduce hands-free driving and limited self-driving features by 2026.
Mixed Analyst Ratings: While some analysts remain optimistic, others have downgraded RIVN stock due to near-term challenges.
Rivian Automotive faces near-term challenges, including a weak 2025 delivery forecast and industry headwinds. However, improvements in production costs and upcoming innovations like the R2 SUV and self-driving features offer hope for long-term growth. For investors, RIVN stock presents a mixed picture, with cautious optimism balanced by near-term risks.
Related Article:
UnitedHealth Group Shares Plunge Amid DOJ Investigation into Medicare Billing Practices
